Gold relative to other key commodities

Gold has been holding it's ground compared to other key commodities.

Click on the image for larger picture. Source: Commodity Research Bureau / Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI).

The chart above shows the price action of key commodities since 2007 plotted on the back of the Reuters’ Continuous Commodity Index (CCI). In the chart, the four commodities and the commodity index are equalized to 100 on April 2011, the time when the commodity index peaked.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Human Males Never Retired, They Just Died

The entire concept of retirement is unique to the late 20th century. Before World War II, most Americans worked until they died.”  Morgan Housel, Motley Fool.

This graph show labor participation rate of men age 65+ since 1880.

Source: Economic History Association, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Click on the image for larger picture.

Source: The Motley Fool

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Facebook's Elliott Wave structure

Here is a daily chart of Facebook, with ticker "FB" on the NYSE. Facebook has just completed a 4th wave correction and is in the beginning of a 5th wave rally. Target is USD 36, but it could go even higher.

Click on the above image for larger picture.

The 4th wave low in blue color was made with a positive divergent %B. The money flow index is positive. The RSI is in a rising channel. Notice that the Bollinger Band width indicator is very low indicating low volatility. This is common before a big move is coming.

The rally from early September 2012 looks impulsive and the decline from the top in late January 2013 looks corrective, that is the reason we expect the next big move to be to the upside.

Risk management: Stop loss at USD 26.60 or alt. USD 25. If price enter the territory of wave "1" of USD 24,20 or less the bullish pattern is invalidated.

Alternate: An a,b and c correction was completed in late January 2013. This could then be part of a larger  structure like a x, and a new a,b and c corrective rally, before a further decline take place in Facebook.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Hedge Fund Leverage Hits an All Time High

Leverage, as measured by NYSE margin debt, rose 28.3% on a yearly basis, and is now slightly below the July 2007 peak of $381bn. Leverage can be used as a sentiment indicator because it is related to investor confidence. It tends to be correlated with the direction of the equity market, investors are likely to gain confidence and add leverage when the equity market is going up and the opposite when the market declines.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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The Great Grey Catastrophe

A visual video presentation of the ticking demographic bomb facing Europe, Japan and North America. Here is a direct link to the video The Great Grey Catastrophe.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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