Thursday, December 4, 2014

Debt Explotion

Global debt-to-GDP has continued its upward rise, even as slowing growth and persistent disinflation (both logical side-effects of rising debt) detract from the ability of major economies to service those debts in the future.

 

 *Data based on OECD, IMF, and national accounts data. Source: Buttiglione, Lane, Reichlin, & Reinhart. “Deleveraging, What Deleveraging?” 16th Geneva Report on the Global Economy, September 29, 2014.

An ugly set up for the future !

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Monday, November 3, 2014

Velocity of Money fading

We showed this graph about a year ago. Money velocity is still falling, and now it indeed look like a "Deja vu" of the period 1918 to 1945.




















Source Federal Reserve Board

The velocity of money from 1900. And as the graph over shows, in deflationary periods velocity can slow even more than it has recently.

When money velocity is rising, it usually means the economy is expanding. When money velocity starts to fall as we saw after 1918 it usually means the economy is slowing down or even worse contracting.

Much of the developed world is at the very the end of a 60-year-long Debt Cycle. This time the cycle is longer than previous ones due to the reckless economic policy measures by the central banks and governments using enormous credit expansion to finance over investment and over indebtedness. This has prolonged the cycle and at the same time has left the Western world uncompetitive. The culmination of decades of  borrowing is upon us.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Friday, October 17, 2014

The Greek Stock Market - Feast of the Bears

This is an update to our earlier Elliott Wave analysis of the Greek stock market which has followed our forecast to a tea and declined steadely during the year.

























Technical analysis of the Greek stock market.  Source: Elliott Wave Technician

We think that current decline of the Greek stock market in wave "5" could last until June 2016.

This has implications for the Greek banking system. Will a another collapse of the Greek stock market to new record lows put the banks in a similar situation as banks in Cyprus or even worse ?

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Corporate Debt Bubble in the United States

The worlds largest non-financial corporate credit bubble has been developing in the United States since the mid 20th century. It has already reached historical epic proportions.


















Source Board of Governors of  the Federal Reserve System. Click on the above image for larger picture.

The largest credti bubble the world has ever known ! What  happens when the bubble burst and the borrowers can not repay the loans ?

Find out what the world will look like by subscribing to Elliott Wave Technician Investment Newsletter here.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Hong Kong Stock Market

A long term look at the Hang Seng Stock Market Index in Hong Kong. A 10 year bear market ended in 2009. Since then the index has been displaying a number of one and two waves.























Monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index with technical analysis and Elliott Wave Count. Source Elliott Wave Technician

A larger rally in the Hang Seng Index that we have labelled wave '(3)' of a wave '5' is in the early stages and should last multi years.

Some Elliott Wave labelling related to the even larger structure of the Hang Seng Index is omitted from the chart.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
Copyright (C) all rights reserved