Monday, July 7, 2014

Federal Reserve Stress Index at historical low

A bull market in complacency is developing...


















Source Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

What will trigger the next debt crises ? Another shock is coming. Very likely an even deeper liquidity crises than we saw back in 2008.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Thursday, June 19, 2014

Gold - Elliott Wave structure

A year old triangle in gold is in the latter stages. Here is a daily chart with a detailed view of the Elliott Wave count inside the triangle. A rally in wave 'e' is in progress.

























Click on the above image for larger picure. Source Elliott Wave Technician

The labelling of the larger Elliott Wave structure of Gold is removed from the chart. When the triangle is complete, we expect a large move in the price of Gold.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Wednesday, May 7, 2014

The stock market - Latin American opportunity

This is an update of our article "The stock market - Asia will continue to outperform Latin America" posted the 30th of January 2014.

We expect a long term opportunity to arise in the Latin American stock market over the next year or so.























Source: Elliott Wave Technician. Click on the above image to get a larger picture.

The stock market of Asia xJapan has been outperforming Latin America the last few years as we predicted back in 2010 when the Ratio broke out of a bullish wedge.

We expect Latin America to bottom relative to Asia when the Ratio reach our target of 1.5 which represent solid resistance.

The coming year is a window of opportunity to buy the emerging Latam stock market at bargain prices.

The private market as well as the grey market, during bear markets in emerging countries, are usually possible to buy into for extremely low prices as the crowd as well as investment managers think these markets are worthless.

Subscribe to our investment newsletter and see the Elliott Wave structure of Emering Latin Ameria.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Facebook - Elliott Wave count

Facebook display a complete Elliott Wave structure in 5 waves up from the last major bottom in September 2012. The Elliott Wave count is marked with blue color on the weekly chart under.























Weekly chart of Facebook with technical analysis and Elliott Wave count. Source Elliott Wave Technician

The rally lasted more than one and a half year so the correction in progress should last at least a few more months if it is going to be in proportion to the rise.

On the technical indicators both RSI and #b displayed clear negative divergence at the recent top of wave "5" compared to the previous top of wave "3". The divergence is marked on the chart with a red line connecting the two tops. It is typical of a 5th wave to end with lower momentum then wave "3" .

A common initial retracement is were wave "4"  bottomed or around USD 45.

A more interesting question is if this complete a one larger degree Elliott Wave structure as well. If so then the initial retracement is USD 18 - 20 were the larger degree 4th wave bottomed. If you want to know if we believe this is the case, subscribe to our investment newsletter.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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Thursday, April 3, 2014

The Stock Market of Russia - Collapse is Imminent

The Russian Bear is back and will soon show his anger in full force. A large wave
"(2)" rally topped early 2011, since then the Russian stockmarket has displayed a number of  "1" and  "2" waves of different degrees of trend.





































Weekly chart of the Russian Trading System Index with technical analysis and Elliott Wave count. Source Elliott Wave Technician

Currently a small rally up to the horizontal resistance line marked in red color on the chart is topping.

The next should be a devasting decline in wave  "3" of  "3", most likely with large price gaps as the stock market of Russia collapse.

The implication of increasing negative social mood will be terrible, expect a more agresive and assertive Russian government, the current conflicts will escalate, chaos, destruction and further economic deterioration will follow.

The economic deterioration will soon hit the core European countries like France and Germany with full force.

Geir Solem

Elliott Wave Technician
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