Thursday, November 5, 2009

Currencies

Here is an extract from our Special Report covering currencies just published:
This is a special report covering the worlds most important currencies the USD, EURO, GBP, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. We also a have a special section covering Eastern European currencies since they are the most vulnerable. In currencies where the patterns are not clear we have added ratio analysis which in most cases reveals the likely outcome.

The Swiss Franc




































The king of currencies topping?

An 8 year rally in a relatively clear 5 wave pattern ended in 2008.  A corrective decline in an "a" wave into late 2008 and then a "b" wave counertrend rally that is being completed. Intermediate and long term top being completed in the Swiss Franc. Approaching a multi month decline in wave "c".


Ratio USD /  British Pound Cross exchange trend

The USD is near completing a nearly year long "B" correction against the GBP and is approaching a multi month "C" wave rally for the USD/GBP.







































The full strength of the USD relative to the GBP should be evident the coming year when the new trend picks up force.

The Bank of Englands quantative easing policy of printing money on a large scale is beginning to make an impact on the value of GBP ?

Currency collapse coming in Eastern Europe ?

The next collapse coming in Ukraine ?
The Ukraine is trying to raise its minimum salary and pension from approx. USD 80 by 20%, this is in conflict with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who may decline to provide further loans given that the politicians are not able to get the balooning state deficits under control. The wage and pension rises are jeopardizing the release of the next $3.8 billion tranche of an IMF bailout package and may also thwart financial help as well as from the European Union and other financial institutions.

The country has already overwelming debt to the IMF. The IMF has already handed out almost $11 billion in loans to the Ukraine since approving a $16.4 billion standby loan in the fall of 2008. These loans have helped to keep alive distressed banks, plug holes in the budget and support the hryvnia, Ukraine's currency.

A wave of bankruptcies in Ukraine's banks are expected as consumers are likely to default on about 30 percent of mortgage loans, 70 percent of which were denominated in US dollars. The bankruptcies could send a domino effect across Eastern Europe and threaten the solvency of European banks which own about a third of the Ukrainian banking system. The default on Ukraines state debt is imminent.

In addition the report cover the following (summary):
We have identified a potential large triangle spanning decades in the USD that we think is a large wave B. If you know Elliott Wave Theory you will recognise that when a B is completed the next big move then should be a powerful wave C. Since the triangle is spanning decades the C should last many years. Currently the USD is completing a minor "b" and the next move should be a minor "c" wave to complete the "d" of the triangle. This new trend should last multi months. - We have also identified a multi month triangle in the EURO/GBP cross ratio that is being completed. The next move should last more than a year. - A 30 year old structure in the USD/JPY coss is being completed. - Some currencies are in a position to collapse and the report reveals which ones are the most vulnerable. Published November 2009.

See more in our latest Special Report covering currencies at http://www.elliottwavetechnician.com/. Intermediate and long term forecast with price targets.

Special Reports can be purchases for USD 35. The reports are free for members. Please use email ewtechnician@gmail.com for ordering  our Special Reports. Payment instructions will be email to you upon your order.

Geir Solem
http://www.elliottwavetechnician.blogspot.com/
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